The world is entering a new energy era. The race to decarbonize industries and secure energy independence has placed green hydrogen at the heart of Europe’s transition strategy. With governments setting ambitious regulatory targets and channeling billions into public investment the green hydrogen market is no longer a distant promise. It is a booming reality.
For the global electrolyzer market, forecasts predict a remarkable 27% growth annually through 20341 reaching $363 billion. Investment in electrolysers is on a steep growth trajectory: $7 billion were drawn in electrolyser installation investments in 2024 – a staggering 35x growth since 2022, when investments have accounted to just $0.6 billion2. However, if we were to comply with NZE 2050 (Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario), an annual investment of $50 billion is needed to the end of this decade to get on track3.
In this dynamic context, Hydrogenera (Green Innovation AD, BSE: HYDR, BG1100023222) stands out as a rare success story. Besides being at the forefront of innovation, the Bulgarian electrolyser manufacturer is among the few that are operationally efficient and already profitable.
This unique position underscores Hydrogenera’s resilience, vision, and ability to capture value in a rapidly evolving market where many falter and remain stuck at the stage of heavy CapEx and R&D spending.
Powering the Future: How Green Hydrogen Can Carve Its Place in the Global Market
In 2023, demand for green hydrogen grew by 10% compared to 2022, yet it still accounted for less than 1% of global hydrogen consumption4. Against this backdrop, policy frameworks are beginning to shift toward stimulating demand, following several years during which governments primarily focused on supporting supply. With the right incentives in place, the International Energy Agency predicts low-emission hydrogen demand could increase 10x by 2030, surpassing 6 million tons per year5.
Competitiveness on the Horizon
Technological progress and operational optimization are paving the way for low-emission hydrogen to become price-competitive. By 2030, more than 5 million tons annually could be produced at costs comparable to hydrogen from fossil fuels, covering about 5% of the current global demand at 97 million tons per year6.
Europe’s Position
Global hydrogen demand amounted to 97 million tons in 2023. Europe currently consumes close to 8 million tons of hydrogen annually, or about 8% of global demand7. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects hydrogen consumption worldwide to reach 150 million tons by 2030. If Europe maintains its current share, its consumption would amount to 12 million tons annually.
Under the NZE Scenario, 45% of this demand shall be derived from low-emission sources8, equivalent to 5.4 million tons of green hydrogen per year again, if Europe maintains its current share. That translates into approximately 24.3 GW of energy9. However, the region’s operational electrolyser capacity (incl. Norway, Iceland, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Serbia and Albania) provides only about 0.27 GW. Meeting future needs will therefore require nearly a 90x increase in capacity.
A 2024 research by the European Hydrogen Observatory assessed the capital costs for alkaline electrolysers, estimating them at € 2,31010 per kW, or € 2.31 billion per GW. With a possible consumption of 24.3 GW, this could translate to a potential total addressable market worth € 56.13 billion.
Europe’s hydrogen electrolysis sector is still in the early stages of development, with most of the planned capacity yet to move beyond the concept and feasibility phases. According to IAE’s projects and infrastructure database11, 102.58 GW of capacity is at the concept stage, while another 51.03 GW is under feasibility study. In stark contrast, only 0.27 GW of projects are operational today and just 4.18 GW have reached construction and FID (Final Investment Decision). These figures highlight both the enormous potential for growth and the significant challenges ahead in translating plans into functioning infrastructure.
Project Pipelines
The global electrolyser project pipeline offers a clearer picture of potential expansion. By focusing on projects that have reached FID investors can better assess sector momentum. In the 12 months following the Global Hydrogen Review (GHR) 2023, around 6.5 GW12 of projects achieved FID—slightly below the 7.5 GW reported in the year prior. Here, Europe is clearly the elephant in the room, with its projected volumes reaching FID roughly tripling.
Over the past year, governments worldwide have announced more than $100 billion13 in policy support to accelerate low-emission hydrogen adoption. The sector must now broaden its reach into hard-to-abate industries such as heavy manufacturing, long-haul transport, hydrogen-based fuels, and energy production and storage.
Investment Momentum
Investment in hydrogen electrolysers is accelerating rapidly. Investments saw a 12-fold increase just for 2 years and were expected to reach $ 7 billion by the end of 2024.14 Besides China, Europe remains the clear leader, with major projects, such as Stegra’s $ 7 billion Boden steel plant in Sweden and large-scale plants in Germany by EWE and RWE, highlight the industrial focus of Europe’s strategy. Even though the rate of deployment is impressive, it still represents only 6% of the $ 50 billion that needs to be invested on average annually until 2030 to get on track with the NZE Scenario.15
Policy Support
Since the GHR 2023, 26 new demand-side policies have been introduced16, mostly focusing on CapEx support through grants, although some countries are deploying alternative mechanisms:
- Germany: Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) for low-carbon hydrogen.
- India: Renewable hydrogen quotas for the refining sector.
- European Union: Mandates through ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime.
Several noteworthy announcements underscore the global push:
- Australia: AUD 490 million to develop 7 hydrogen hubs, with potential output of 2.8 million tons annually.
- Italy: € 550 million to support industrial hydrogen use, plus € 300 million to replace diesel trains with hydrogen alternatives.
- Germany: € 4.4 billion pilot CCfD program for low-carbon hydrogen and derivatives.
- India: Quotas requiring 5–15% renewable hydrogen in refining from 2026 to 2027.
While current adoption levels remain modest, technological advances, expanding project pipelines, and robust policy frameworks are setting the stage for rapid growth. For Europe in particular, meeting net-zero targets will require scaling production capacity at an unprecedented pace.
The setup for growth
After we have laid the ground of the external landscape, let’s make a quick wrap up and combine all elements together: Against a backdrop of limited existing capacity, robust investment momentum, and strong policy support, Hydrogenera is strategically positioned to capture growth in the electrolyser manufacturing segment and emerge as a pivotal player in Europe’s green hydrogen value chain. With a proven technology base, and an already positive EBITDA track record, the company combines the credibility of execution with the agility of a challenger.
Hydrogenera at a Glance
Hydrogenera is a pioneer in hydrogen technologies. Founded in 2016, the company has been at the forefront of innovation, manufacturing advanced electrolysers recognized for their reliability and energy efficiency. Hydrogenera’s activities span the entire hydrogen value chain encompassing production, storage, distribution, and end use — enabling it to support the decarbonization of heavy industry, transport, utility and energy sectors.
- Hydrogenera is the 1st Bulgarian company to join the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance
- As a member of the Hydrogen Global Initiative, Hydrogenera collaborates with global partners to accelerate the adoption of hydrogen solutions
- Inventor and implementor of 11 projects for green energy, each listed and prioritized on the European hydrogen map
Hydrogenera in Numbers
| ISIN | BG1100023222 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | € 48.05m [17] |
| Revenue LTM | € 4.6m |
| Revenue Growth 24 vs. 23 | 48% |
| Revenue Growth H1 25 vs. H1 24 | 55% |
| EBITDA Growth H1 25 vs. H1 24 | 147% |
| Net Profit Growth H1 25 vs. H1 24 | 159% |
Following its successful IPO and raising €4m capital on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, Hydrogenera has entered a new stage of development.
Business Model & Technology
Hydrogenera’s business model encompasses production and sales of alkaline electrolysers (ALK). The company is partnering with integrators on various locations including Germany, UK, Turkey and Poland and has already completed more than 92 projects across 4 countries.
Hydrogenera’s electrolysers have a wide range of applications across the industry, transport and energy sectors. The company currently has 2 types of electrolysers – the Z-Series and E-Series alkaline electrolysers.
The Z-Series electrolysers offer a cutting-edge solution for efficiently, safely, and reliably producing high-purity hydrogen.
The E-Series electrolysers are customized solutions, tailored to meet the specific energy needs of each business. These modular systems produce clean, high-energy fuel (hydrogen and oxygen) on-site and integrate it into any combustion process of conventional fuels, achieving increased energy efficiency.
| Z-Series | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| High Efficiency | The 1MW Z-Series can produce 210 Nm3/h of hydrogen or 456 kg per day with a consumption of 4.5 kWh/ Nm3. |
| Hydrogen Purity | Up to 99.999% purity |
| Custom Solutions | Tailored stack designs for specific project needs |
| Durability | The stack’s lifespan is up to 15 years,ensuring reliability and reducing maintenance costs |
| E-Series | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| Customization and Flexibility | Each E system is tailored to meet the unique requirements of different businesses, ensuring optimal integration and performance. |
| Modular Design | The system’s modular concept allows for scalability, enabling businesses to adjust its size based on their energy needs and expansion plans. |
| On-Site Production | E systems produce hydrogen and oxygen on-site, reducing the need to transport and store these gases. |
Competitive Landscape
While most listed electrolyser makers remain stuck in a costly loop of heavy R&D and CapEx spending, burning cash without reaching profitability, Hydrogenera stands out as a rare exception. The Bulgarian hydrogen producer is already EBITDA and Net Profit-positive, supported by a sizeable € 295 million order backlog, giving it resilience that many larger competitors still lack.
Sources: Koyfin, Company annual reports and investor materials (2024–2025) and related exchange disclosures.
The landscape is shifting fast: at the turn of 2025, one of the world’s biggest alkaline electrolyser producers — Thyssenkrupp Nucera — announced they would walk away from hydrogen projects worth double-digit gigawatts18. Their exit leaves a vacuum in the market, creating an opening for nimble challengers like Hydrogenera to step in and seize the momentum.
Investment Case
Geographical Mismatch, Strategic Opportunity
Hydrogenera is a manufacturer-innovator, constantly developing its technology, building global reach and with strong fundamentals. As many other cases, the listing on a smaller European exchange (Bulgarian Stock Exchange – BSE) keeps the company under the radar of many institutional and retail investors across Europe.
In essence, a geographical mismatch takes place: while Bulgaria is entering a new phase of maturity with its accession to the Eurozone, local champions like Hydrogenera remain
undervalued relative to their international peers. The divergence between the company’s fundamentals and its visibility presents a compelling opportunity for forward-looking investors to gain early exposure before broader market recognition takes hold.
High quality company with low coverage and
market visibility
Hydrogenera offers investors a unique entry point into Europe’s accelerating green hydrogen buildout, combining exposure to a booming market with the discipline of a profitable, capital-efficient player.
Unlike many peers, the company is already EBITDA-positive and backed by a €295m order backlog. Hydrogenera is ideally positioned to capture market share and scale rapidly. Strong policy tailwinds, attractive subsidies, and its first-mover advantage in Southeast Europe amplify the upside — while the risks of execution and policy dependency are outweighed by the sheer size of the opportunity.
If global and regional ambitions are realized, low-emission and green hydrogen could transition from a marginal energy carrier today to a cornerstone of the decarbonized energy system by the end of the decade.
Abbreviations used
H2 – Hydrogen
FID – Final Investment Decision
IAE – International Energy Agency
kW – Kilowatt
MW – Megawatt
GW – Gigawatt
TW – Terawatt
HHV – Higher Heating Value
Mtpa – Million Tons per Annum
Disclaimer
This publication is produced by Viktor Manev as an individual and, for avoidance of doubt, not acting in his capacity of IMPETUS Capital’s managing director, is completed on September 30, 2025. Viktor Manev, via IMPETUS Capital and managed by the latter companies, currently holds shares of Green Innovation AD (operating under the trademark Hydrogenera, ISIN: BG1100023222) which may constitute potential conflict of interest. An independent member of the board of Green Innovation AD is a shareholder and a managing partner in IMPETUS Capital which may constitute potential conflict of interest.
This publication, produced by Viktor Manev, is first disseminated by IMPETUS Capital on September 30, 2025 with modification thereafter by the author. The content published by IMPETUS Capital — including articles, podcasts, and newsletters — reflects the personal opinions of the authors affiliated with the firm and does not represent the official views of IMPETUS Capital, its subsidiaries, or affiliates. This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, digital asset (such as cryptocurrency), or other financial instruments, nor as a basis for making investment decisions. It does not constitute a research report. Any third-party information referenced does not necessarily reflect the views of IMPETUS Capital or its related entities. All investors should execute their own due diligence in making investment decisions. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
References
- https://www.precedenceresearch.com/electrolyzer-market
- p.139 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2024/investment-finance-and-innovation
- p.20 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.23 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.11 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.21 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.22 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- At higher heating value (HHV) of 39.4 kWh per kilogram of H2 -> 5.4 Mtpa * 39.4 kWh = ~213 TWh per year ÷ 8.76 (8760 hours in 1 year) = 24.3 GWh
- https://observatory.clean-hydrogen.europa.eu/hydrogen-landscape/production-trade-and-cost/electrolyser-cost
- IAE Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database
- p.68 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.163 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.139 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.138 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- p.172 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
- As of Sep. 4, 2025
- https://www.powermag.com/leading-hydrogen-producer-may-abandon-u-s-projects-due-to-trumps-actions/
